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陈文玲:未来几个月是中美贸易协议达成的关键期(中英双语)
时间:2019年07月08日    作者:陈文玲

Next Few Months Crucial For China-U.S. Trade Deal

未来几个月是中美贸易协议达成的关键期  

来源:MNI Market News(国际市场新闻社)

 

China and the U.S. could reach a preliminary trade deal as soon as this September, following the green light for a resumption in the trade talks, although not everyone is optimistic about the chances of a quick deal, government advisors told MNI.

MNI采访中国国际经济交流中心总经济师陈文玲,她认为,在中美两国贸易谈判重启之际,双方有望最快在今年9月达成初步的贸易协议,尽管并非所有人都对近期达成协议持乐观看法。

 

 “If the Trump administration stops flip-flopping this time, it is possible for both sides to reach a preliminary agreement in three months,” said Chen Wenling, Chief Economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a high-level think tank managed by the country’s powerful National Development and Reform Commission.

陈文玲接受采访时表示,“如果这一次特朗普政府不再出尔反尔,中美双方有可能在3个月内达成一个初步的协议”。

 

She said U.S. President Donald Trump needs “achievements” that can help him secure re-election next year and reaching a deal with China this year would help him win a second term by countering domestic complaints from soybean farmers and others. Defusing global trade tensions with a deal would also underpin U.S. economic growth and employment in the run-up to the November 2020 vote.

美国将在2020年11月举行下届总统大选,她表示,总统特朗普急需“政绩”助力其赢得明年的总统连任选举。而今年与中国达成贸易协议,将有助于缓和国内豆农及社会各界对他的不满情绪。此外,达成贸易协议还将缓解全球贸易摩擦的紧张态势,同样有助于美国稳定经济增长和就业,对特朗普赢得连任创造好的外部环境。

 

On the other hand, Chen Fengying, former director of world economy at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, which is affiliated to the Ministry of State Security, noted that the two countries still have to figure out the starting point before trade negotiations can be brought back to life.

不过,中国现代国际关系研究院世界经济研究所原所长陈凤英认为,在谈判重回轨道之前,两国还要确定谈判的起点。

 

“The U.S. wants to resume from the previous ninth round of negotiations, while China wants to continue from the eleventh round,” Chen Fengying pointed out, without elaborating on the differences that drove the two governments apart in May. She believes that if the U.S. can agree with China on the starting point for renewed talks, progress can be expected “very soon”.

陈凤英说,“美国希望在前9轮谈判的基础上继续进行,中国则希望从第11轮谈判谈起”。她并未解释5月份时导致双方谈判破裂的具体分歧所在。她认为,如果美国能同意从中国建议的谈判起点开始恢复磋商,那么将 “很快”取得进展。

 

Both Chens said there is no timetable or roadmap and the situation could change during the negotiations, including the possibility of relapsing back into stalemate and escalating into a deeper conflict.

两位专家都表示,目前没有时间表和路线图,要视谈判的情况而定,也不排除再度陷入僵局或冲突升级的可能。

 

--90% AGREED

--达成90%的共识

Chen Wenling, former bureau chief at the State Council Research Office, believes that the removal of all the tariffs imposed on Chinese imports by Washington since the trade dispute flared up is a priority issue for Beijing and preconditions for a deal. But she conceded that the Trump Administration’s willingness to we)aponise tariffs suggests it won’t give up on them lightly.

陈文玲认为,最应优先解决的问题是取消相互加征的高额关税。这是中国后续谈判的首要任务,也是达成贸易协议的前提条件。但她认为,特朗普政府对关税有特别的癖好,可能不会轻易放下关税大棒。

 

At the same time, for Chen Wenling, Washington must rein in its demands for concessions from Beijing.  “It is said that China promised to buy USD200 billion of American goods (at the G20) in Argentina last year, and since then that number has grown to USD 300 billion, then USD 330 billion,” she said, adding that “the U.S. must make a concession on what they asked for.”

陈文玲还认为,如果要与中国达成协议,美国不可能再坚持原来的要价。“据说在去年阿根廷20国集团峰会两国元首会晤达成的共识是,中国增加向美国购买2000亿美元的商品,但此后这个数字被加到3000亿,又加到3300亿”,陈文玲说,“这个要价美国肯定会让步,强买强卖难以达成共识。”

 

More pressing for the U.S., according to Chen Wenling, is for the U.S. to restore greater market access for its agriculture products in China, in particular to help the many soybean farmers on the verge of bankruptcy. China can restore imports of American soybean and cool global soybean prices, she said, as well as expanding energy and airplanes imports from the U.S.

陈文玲表示,美国现在最迫切的是加大中国对美国农产品的进口,以解国内豆农濒临破产的燃眉之急。恢复对大豆的进口,中国可以做到,这也有利于平抑国际大豆的价格。同时,中国还可以增加购入美国的能源和飞机,中国市场有需求,美国有供给。

 

As for other U.S. requirements, including intellectual property protection, ending forced technology transfer, and equal treatment for state-owned and privately-owned companies, China is capable of satisfying Washington’s hopes, according to Chen Wenling, chiming with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s comment that the two sides are 90% agreed. She added, without elaborating, that the outstanding 10% lies in internet control and data flow.

陈文玲称,至于美国的其他诉求,如知识产权保护、禁止强制性技术转让、对国有企业和民营企业一视同仁等,中国都可以做到,这也符合中国未来的改革方向。她表示,正如日前美国财长努姆钦(Steve Mnuchin)的公开评论所言,90%的问题是可以达成共识的。她指出,10%的分歧之一,在于网络空间的管制和数据的流动问题,但她并未展开说明。

 

She believes that the next phase in the trade negotiations hinge on what the U.S. offers. In this context,  Washington’s restoration of American supplies to Huawei are seen not so much as a concession but a “self-correction”, driven by the self-harm of cutting off supply chains and losing access to the Chinese market. Moreover, if the U.S. relaxed exports of high-tech products to China, such as in the areas of military equipment or bioengineering, the bilateral trade deficit would shrink by USD100 to 200 billion, Chen Wenling estimated.

她认为,下一阶段的贸易谈判要看美国怎么做。她强调,此次美国政府恢复对华为的芯片供应绝不能视为美方让步,而是美国在切断产业链、失去中国市场而感到疼痛后的一种“自我纠正”。此外,如果美国能放宽对中国出口高科技产品的限制,如芯片、军工或生物工程领域,她估计贸易逆差可以减少1000到2000亿美元。

 

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