中国国际经济交流中心

当前位置:首页 -> 专家学者 -> 专家论点
陈文玲: September China-US Meeting Likely
时间:2019年09月05日    作者:陈文玲

 

By RPT-MNI EXCLUSIVE     Date: September 4, 2019

 

BEIJING (MNI) - A meeting between Chinese and U.S. trade negotiators is likely to proceed this month, although expectations for progress should be limited, government advisors told MNI.

北京(MNI)-- 政府顾问对MNI表示,中美贸易谈判代表仍可能于本月举行会谈,尽管他们对谈判可能达成的成果预期有限。

 

The latest round of tariff hikes by the two countries raised doubts over whether the meeting in Washington would go ahead as scheduled. But Chen Wenling, Chief Economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said Vice Premier Liu He aims to "resolutely oppose trade war escalation" and that while China will not concede its key principles, it wants to resolve disputes rationally.

中美两国之间最新一轮互加关税导致市场对原定9月份在华盛顿的会谈能否如期举行产生了疑虑。但中国国际经济交流中心总经济师陈文玲认为,刘鹤副总理曾明确表态“坚决反对贸易战升级”,中国在坚持原则和底线的同时,希望理性地解决问题。

 

"China's retaliatory move aims to create a fair base for the talks, not to fight tooth and nail," she said, comparing the current situation to that before the 11th round of talks in May when Vice Premier Liu also headed to the U.S. to put talks back on track. But, said Chen, whose high-level think tank falls under the National Development and Reform Commission, the meetings could prove fruitless unless the U.S. shows some flexibility.

“中国实施报复性关税意在为谈判创造一个平等的基础,并非为了打个‘你死我活’”,陈文玲说道。她表示,当前形势与5月份第十一轮谈判前夕相似,当时刘鹤副总理为了能让谈判重回正轨,“顶着压力、带着诚意”赴美。但陈文玲表示,谈判也可能无果而终,除非美国展现出一些灵活性。

 

Yu Miaojie, a veteran trade expert advising several government departments, said the two countries will likely meet, and "maybe in late-September". Talks could focus on avoiding additional tariffs on CNY550 billion of Chinese products which President Donald Trump plans to impose on Oct. 1 and Dec. 15.

为多个政府机构担任顾问的资深贸易专家余淼杰表示,两国很可能举行会谈,“时间可能在9月末”。谈判的重点可能是避免对5500亿美元的中国输美商品加征额外关税。美国总统特朗普计划分别在10月1日和12月15日进一步提高关税。

 

"It is still possible for the two sides to reach a preliminary deal in the second half of November, or December," said Yu, who is also Deputy Dean of the National School of Development at Peking University. The two heads of state could meet during the APEC meeting in Santiago in mid-November, he said.

现任北京大学国家发展研究院副院长的余淼杰表示,双方仍有可能在11月下旬达成初步协议,鉴于两国元首可能将在11月中旬于智利圣地亚哥举行的APEC会议上会晤。

 

Yet Yu remains pessimistic over Sino-U.S. relations in the long run. Any deal "could turn into a worthless piece of paper, if Trump gets re-elected in 2021," said Yu.

但余淼杰对长期的中美关系感到悲观。他表示,如果2021年特朗普获得连任,那么任何协议都可能变成废纸一张。

 

Both advisors think China should look beyond tariffs as reprisals to any future U.S. increases, to measures including a "non-reliable" entity list, along with the export restriction of rare earths.

两名顾问均认为,若未来美国进一步提高关税,中国除了施加报复性关税以外,还应考虑出台“不可靠”实体清单和限制稀土出口等措施作为反制。

 

"China is ready to roll out the 'non-reliable' list to target American companies anytime," said Chen, "if they are submissive to their state power to curb supplies to Chinese enterprises." Yu thinks FedEx would be included on such a list, if introduced.

陈文玲表示,“我们随时准备出台针对美企的‘不可靠’实体清单,尤其如果美国企业听从美国政府对中国企业断供的话。”余淼杰认为,如果出台这一清单,联邦快递将在劫难逃。

 

China should increase stockpiles, boost domestic production and increase imports from Europe, Japan and South Korea to replace declining agriculture imports from the U.S, Yu said.

余淼杰还认为,为了弥补自美农产品进口的下滑,中国应增加库存,扩大国内生产和加大自欧洲、日本和韩国的进口。

 

浏览次数:901