评2018-2019年度全球10件大事

  • 时间:2019-01-15
  • 来源:中国国际经济交流中心

作者:中国国际经济交流中心博士后课题组王宪磊小组

 

岁月不居,时节如流。2018-2019年度《全球要事报告》秉承创新、求实、睿智、兼容的科学理念,从大事看大势。采用CCIEE博士后研究探索小组的“智能程序思维”理论和“活要素计算的数学原理”,使用大数据研究探索全球大变革的路径和影响。活要素的能量显示:全球生产力的创新要素活跃,在量子科学、生命科学与人工智能等推动下,重大科技工程成果显著,嫦娥四号探测器成为人类首次在月球背面软着陆的探测器;全球生产关系正在发生深刻变革,在特朗普政府“退群”的影响下,全球经贸关系中经济全球化、贸易自由化、投资便利化,与单边主义和保守主义的博弈正在加深,世界经贸新秩序的绿芽还在胚蕾中;构建人类命运共同体共识增加,中国进入高质量发展期,“一带一路”建设合作共赢深入推进,中国为世界发展注入了正能量;人类社会的各种各类要素活跃级别都在超越了基线,横空出世、影响深刻久远。

活要素能量超越基线。活要素初始条件决定的路径和预期日益凸显,表示着世界主要国家战略调整与政策选项出现了“定义域”与“值域”互换景象。活要素边界条件决定的结构和值域的约束性成指数下降,表示着百年不遇乃至千年不遇的重大事情正在发生。活要素端点条件决定的选项和目标出现了量子纠缠,表示着不断涌现的历史性大事波及全球且影响久远。

从大事看大势。针对全球存在的认识、发展、创新、改革、调整和平衡等6大共同性问题,采用“智能程序思维”理论和“活要素计算法”, 利用大数据遴选出2018-2019年度全球10件大事:第一是全球生产力要素活跃,发展创新取得众多世界“第一”和人类“首次”的新成就,嫦娥四号探测器成为人类首次在月球背面软着陆的探测器;第二是全球生产关系中单边主义和孤立主义的活要素凸现,特朗普政府“退群”效应影响深刻久远;第三是全球第二大经济体中国选举产生了新一届国家领导人、习近平主席全票当选,俄罗斯大选、普京总统高票连任;第四是全球经济关系正在发生深刻变革,美国经济恢复增长,中国经济走向高质量发展期,欧盟经济低于预期;第五是中国脱贫成就显著,中国又有125个贫困县通过验收脱贫,1000万农村贫困人口摆脱贫困;第六是全球贸易关系正在深度调整,经济全球化、贸易自由化、投资便利化遇到单边主义和保护主义的挑战,博弈加剧;第七是全球金融关系发生深度变革,美元一年4次连续加息、欧元退出定量宽松、人民币持续降准,全球债务风险凸现;第八是全球一体化程度最高的欧盟出现深刻变革,英国脱欧、德国难民、法国“黄马甲”事件等推动欧盟深度变革;第九是全球双边、多边和第三方关系发生深刻变革;第十是全球历史性重大纪念活动呈现出历史性与现实性的再现,纪念马克思诞辰200周年、《共产党宣言》发表170周年、中国改革开放40年与新时代改革开放成为全球热点。

时代在呼唤英雄。上述10件大事,在全球大变革中具有巨大能量,活要素能量超越基线,代表着全球发展大势。在全球大变革浪潮中,可谓沧海横流、方显中华儿女英雄本色。活要素的本质属性显示,人类发展进步大潮滚滚向前,全球经济社会发展时有波折起伏,但各国走向开放、走向合作的大趋势没有改变。在互联网推动下,产业链、价值链、供应链不断延伸和拓展,带动了生产要素全球流动,助力数十亿人口脱贫致富。合作共赢、交流通好、优势互补是生产力发展的客观要求,也必然决定生产关系大势。各经济体逐渐形成利益共同体、责任共同体、命运共同体的共识在增强。无论前途是晴是雨,携手合作、互利共赢是唯一正确选择。这是经济规律,也是人类社会发展的历史规律。面对重重挑战,我们既要增强紧迫感,也要保持理性,登高望远,以负责任态度把握中国与世界大势。

 

The 10 Most Significant World Events in 2018-2019

The CCIEE Postdoctoral Research Group

Years go by and seasons run by. The 2018-2019 Annual 《10 Most Significant World Events Report》upholds the scientific concept of innovation, realism, wisdom and compatibility, and looks at the general situation from the perspective of significant events.The CCIEE Postdoctoral Research and Exploration Group proposed and using the theory of "Intelligent Programming Thinking", "Mathematical Principles of Living Element Computing" as well asbig data theory to explore the path and impact of global change.The energy of the living elements shows that: the innovative elements of global productivity are active. Promoted by quantum science, life science and artificial intelligence, major scientific and technological projects have made remarkable achievements.Chang'e-4 became the first probe soft landing on the back of the Moon.Global production relations are undergoing profound changes. Under the influence of Trump government's "withdrawal" and trade war, economic globalization, trade liberalization and investment facilitation are challenged severely by unilateralism and conservatism in global economic and trade relations.The green buds of the new world economic and trade order are still in the bud. Consensus on building the community of human destiny has increased. China has entered a period of high quality development. The Belt and Road construction cooperation and win-win progress has been further promoted, and China has injected positive energy into the world development. The active level of all kinds of human society factors goes way beyond baseline,coming from nowhere but making a profound and lasting impact.

Living element energy goes beyond baseline. The path and expectations determined by the initial conditions of living factors are becoming increasingly prominent, which indicates that the strategic adjustment and policy options of the world's major countries have witnessed the exchange of "definition domain" and "value domain".The structure determined by the boundary conditions of living elements and the constraints of their ranges decrease exponentially, which indicates that something important which never happened before in a hundred years or in a millennium is happening.The quantum entanglement of the options and objectives determined by the endpoint conditions of living elements indicates that historical events are constantly emerging and making a long-lasting impact on the world.Besides, the analysis of Global trade frictions using "Intelligent Programming Thinking" shows that the results of logical thinking and realistic situation are often contrary to each other. Dialectics is closer to reality than logical thinking;The scene variables described by "Mathematical Principle of livingElement Computing" and the independent variables in Newton's mechanics are contrary with each other in the values domain. Obviously, the scene variables in quantum science system better describe the road map of the global revolution.

Look at the general situation from influential events. Aiming at the six common problems of global awareness, development, innovation, reform, adjustment and balance, this paper adopts the theory of "intelligent program thinking" and "living factor calculation" to select 10 global events from 2018 to 2019using big data.First, global productivity factors are active. Development and innovation have made many new achievements of "first" in the world and "first" in human beings.Chang'e-4 has become the first soft landing probe on the back of the moon.Second, the emergence of unilateralism and Isolationism in global production relations, and the "withdrawal" effect of the Trump government have profound and lasting impact.Third, China-the second largest economy in the world, elected a new national leader, President Xi Jinping by a full agreement. Russian general election ends with the high re-election of President Putin.Fourth, profound changes are taking place in global economic relations. The U.S. economy is recovering and growing. China's economy is heading for a period of high-quality development, and the EU economy is lower than expected.Fifth, China has made remarkable achievements in poverty alleviation. 125 impoverished counties in China have achieved poverty alleviation, and 10 million rural poor people have been lifted out of poverty.Sixth, Global trade relations are undergoing deep adjustment, Global trade frictions are intensified. With the escalation of trade frictions, economic globalization, trade liberalization and investment facilitation are challenged by unilateralism and protectionism, and the game is intensified.Seventh, deep changes have taken place in global financial relations, with four consecutive interest rate increases per year for the US dollar, the quantitative easing withdrawal of the Euro, continuous reduction of the Renminbi, and with the emergence of global debt risks.Eighth, profound reforms have taken place in the highest degree of global integrated European Union. Britain's departure from Europe, the German refugees and the French "Yellow Majia" events have pushed forward thereform in the European Union;Ninth, Profound reform in bilateral, multilateral and third-party relations globally;Tenth, Reappearance of historicity and reality in the major global commemorative activities, commemorating the 200th anniversary of Marx's birth, the 170th anniversary of the Communist Declaration, and the 40th and new era of China's reform and opening-up has become global hot spots.

Heroes are needed in this age. These 10 events have tremendous energy in the global revolution. The energy of living elements exceeds the baseline and represents the general trend of global development.In the era of fast global change, when the seas are in turmoil, heroes are on their mettle.The essential attributes of the living elements show that the tide of human development and progress is rolling forward, and the development of global economy and society sometimes has ups and downs, but the general trend of countries towards openness and cooperation has not changed.With the fast development of the Internet, industrial chain, value chain and supply chain continue to extend and expand, driving the global flow of production factors, helping billions of people get out of poverty and become rich.Win-win cooperation, good communication and complementary advantages are the objective requirements of the development of productive forces, and also determine the general trend of production relations. The consensus of interest community, responsibility community and destiny community has gradually been strengthened in all economies.Whether the future is bright or rainy, cooperation and mutual benefit are the only right choice. This is not only the economic law, but also the historical law of the development of human society. Faced with many challenges, we should not only enhance our sense of urgency, but also maintain our rationality, keep a high horizon and grasp the general situation of China and the world with a responsible attitude.

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